As America slumps into trump 2.0, we're asked to believe that this time he won the popular vote!
In my half-century, i've never had such a hard time believing any such result could be possible.
When trump appeared again as a candidate, i gave him no chance of winning his party's nomination. As ducks go, he seemed deceased-beyond-doubt. He'd lost the previous election by seven million - a drubbing of devastating proportion.
Even if he did well in the primaries, it didn't seem possible the republicans would allow themselves to be represented by an historically-divisive candidate who needed to swing more than three million votes to his side. Trump's personality and policies are so polarizing, the idea of anyone changing their mind about him seems...beyond dubious.
In other words, "undecideds" and trump seem mutually exclusive.
On top of that, what were trump's main accomplishments in the four years since losing to biden? What things would be foremost in people's minds? He incited a riot, and became a convicted felon.
As you might expect, riots and felons poll EXTREMELY low among conservatives. I suspect that most of us know at least one conservative (especially veterans or police) who voted for trump in 2020, but refused to ever do so again. So beyond the need to sway three million who had voted against him, he had also lost a percentage of his own base. Therefore my confusion was at its peak NOT after the general election, but the primaries. It just felt inconceivable that the republicans would allow this to happen, unless they knew something we all didn't.
There was one factor working in trump's favor. In the past four years, eighteen states enacted voter suppression laws targeting minorities. So any republican candidate was going to do better. But over three million votes? No.
Due to trump's assault on wimyn's rights AND the presence of a female rival, it was a bedrock certainty that he would lose the female vote.
Due to the racist label around his neck AND the presence of a rival of color, it was a bedrock certainty that he would lose the black vote.
We're asked to believe that hispanics went his way? For them, the number one image associated with trump is brown children crying in cages.
We're asked to believe that RFK supporters jumped to trump? I can believe some democrats lost faith in biden/harris. But to propose that any liberal could love their preferred candidate enough to accept donald as an eleventh-hour alternative? Simply not credible.
Trump's numbers went up among the very young? This is the most troubling allegation - partly because i can confirm the possibility. I know one person voting in their first election, whom i'd call smart and caring...yet he DID vote for trump. One would think the young would be the MOST immune to trump's old, white fear/hate rhetoric...
Did America's racist/sexist demons squeak out one last gasp? That seems a shaky proposition, because we've already elected a president of color, and a female president.
They say that with every new election, you have to throw the previous results out. Trump lost in 2020 because of covid, which wasn't hanging around his neck this time? Under normal circumstances, that might be true. But again...historically-divisive.
There is an unscientific flavor to this analysis. But i think it's worth sharing, because my circle of association is wide. I have a blue collar job, but also walk in the white-collar world, due to artistic and family connections.
For the first time in my life, this just doesn't feel credible.
